SpaceX hits Nasdaq. $135/share. $1.77 trillion valuation. The biggest IPO in history.

But does the math hold up?

Here's what you're actually buying, 3 verticals:

Starlink (Connectivity)

The only profitable engine. $11.4B revenue in 2025. 10.3M subscribers. Growing 50% YoY. This business is real.

Launch Services

Dominant, contract-backed. $4.1B revenue underpinned by a $5.9B Pentagon contract through 2029. Solid.

xAI / AI Compute

Here's the problem. $6.35B operating loss in 2025. $2.47B loss in Q1 2026 alone. Starlink's profits are subsidising a financial black hole.

Then came the plot twist.

Anthropic agreed to pay $1.25B/month to rent xAI's Colossus 1 data centre, locked in till 2029. Google signed a deal at $920M/month. That's ~$26B in annualised compute revenue. Overnight, the bleeding vertical became an anchor business.

So why are analysts still sceptical?

At $1.77T, SpaceX trades at 107x price-to-sales. There are no earnings to justify it, only a narrative about reusable rockets, global internet, and AI dominance.

You're not buying what SpaceX is today.

You're buying a bet on what Elon Musk says it becomes.

June 12 isn't just a listing date. It's a stress test for the market's appetite for trillion-dollar narratives.

If SpaceX stumbles, OpenAI and Anthropic, both watching from the wings, will feel it too.

Have to watch closely